The Finale of the A340, A330, and B777 Question

Now that we've got ETOPS down, lets look at the state of the airline industry in the mid-1980s, just before the arrival of the three aircraft in question.

The Scene

ETOPS ratings were still quite strict, which meant that all long-haul aircraft were either tri- or quad-jets. Of course the king of kings was the B747 that had the furtherest range, highest payload, and four engines to exempt it from ETOPS restrictions. The other big fish in the long to medium haul market were the Lockheed L-1011 Tristar and DC-10 (later the MD11). I'll show pictures of them in my next plane spotting post (or you can just look them up; chances are that you've seen a DC-10/MD11 but not a L-1011). Twin engine aircraft were still stuck in the short to medium haul market as the ETOPS limitations greatly reduced the profit potential of a long haul twin widebody airliner. The most prominent twins on the market were the A300 (first flew in 1972), A320 (first flew in 1987, so quite a late contender), B737 (first flew in 1967), B767 (first flew in 1981), B757 (first flew in 1982), and the various McDonnell Douglases, etc. Here's a quick summary of each of their original design purposes:

A300 -> first twin engine widebody airliner; designed for short-to-medium haul and high density market

A320 -> basically an Airbus alternative to the B737 (and in turn the B717)

B737 -> a flexible short-to-medium and low density market airliner; designed to replace the larger and far more inefficient B707 and similar B717; most successful airliner of all time

B767 -> Boeing's first twin engine widebody; designed to compete directly with A300 and the trijets in the short-to-medium haul and high density market; replaced the aging B707

B757 -> larger capacity narrowbody for the short-to-medium haul market; designed to replace the aging and considerable B727 fleet

(these are very general, obviously each aircraft's design, replacement, and competitor wasn't as cut and dry as that)

The Times They Are A-Changing

As you can see, none of these aircraft are designed for the medium-to-long haul or long-to-ultra long haul markets. But the stars were beginning to align for a radical change. In the 20 years since the market state I described, the trijets have gone from the most common airliners in the U.S. to almost nonexistent, fewer than a dozen B747s are operated by U.S. carriers, the B737NG has replaced the B707, B717, B727, and largely the B757, the B757 has been discontinued, the A380 has taken the crown as the largest capacity airliner, and finally, the A340, A330, and B777 have come to dominate the medium-to-long haul market (with the B777 being the clear front runner).

So what created the change.......? I'm sure you're already putting the pieces together. In 1985, the FAA opened up the ETOPS-120 minute rating for the first time, finally allowing twins to effectively compete with the tri and quad jets over the most lucrative medium-to-long haul market in the world, the transatlantic corridor. Ever since then, the FAA has been steadily increasing the maximum possible ETOPS ratings (so now 95% of the Earth is covered). At the same time, the trijet and quadjet fleets were starting to age and their inefficiencies were beginning to hurt the airlines. Trijets are in no way comparable to contemporary twins since they had the same capacity but far greater fuel consumptions and maintenance costs due to the third engine. Why have three when two will do? The answer prior to the 1980s was three because of the power need and safety restrictions. But by the early 1990s, GE had created the most powerful jet engine of all time, the GE90 (at a world record thrust of 127,900 lbf). Each GE90 is rated at 111,526 horsepower... TWICE the power of the Titanic! And of course these engines are hugely more reliable than the engines from the 1960s and 1970s. So the twin was in. How Boeing and Airbus both predicted and capitalized on this change has shaped the international airport landscape.

Airbus's Answer

First and foremost, its important to understand that the A340 (first flew in 1991) and A330 (first flew in 1992) programs were jointly managed. Both share similar parts and as a result, each was designed to fulfill a different niche. The program was started prior to the ETOPS rating increase in the mid1980s, so Airbus was designing the A340 for long haul and the A330 for medium haul routes. Airbus's failure to predict the opening up of the long haul market for twins is why both aircraft are second to the B777 (which can do both market effectively). But key to especially the A340's survival, both aircraft came out three years prior to the B777, giving them enough time to get a market share, however small. The A340 was able to get its foot in the door since it was more economical than the B747 with new construction materials and systems and it had a higher MTOW and range than the initial variants of the B777. The A330 has been relatively successful since there is more room in the medium haul market for different aircraft. The A330-200 is actually a direct competitor for the B767, so it has not competed very much with the 777, although the A330-300 is comparable to the B777-200 and -300. Airbus doesn't currently have an aircraft that directly competes with all the B777 varients, as they chose to compete with the B747 with the A380, although the development of the A350 is set to change that.

Boeing's Magnificent Answer

I could spend quite a long time explaining how the B777 (first flew in 1994) is such an amazing and successful airplane, whether I talk about it being the first airliner designed on a computer, having the commercial distance record, or having the most powerful jet engines ever made. But instead I'll just talk about the economic reasons its so pervasive. Boeing was lucky in that it started later than Airbus and in turn saw the writing in the wall about twins. The later design dates also allowed Boeing to utilize many new technologies in the "triple 7" that furthered its economical and technological prowess. The first version of the B777 (B777-200) was revolutionary in its efficiency, power, capacity (for two engines), and reach, but the A340 still had it beat. But with the advent of the B777-200LR, -200ER, -300, and -300ER, the B777 beats every single deck (in other words, not the A380-800) commercial aircraft in the world in terms of range and fuel efficiency. That doesn't even bring into play its extraordinary characteristics such as those mentioned above. I don't know if you've ever been on a B777, (if you haven't been farther than North America and Hawaii then you haven't) but listening to those two beautiful GE90s spool up to full power during a MTOW takeoff is awe-inspiring.

In conclusion, the B777 is so successful because Boeing saw and took advantage of a change in the medium-to-long market that resulted from relaxed regulations and new technologies. That is why you are far more likely to see a B777 taking off from Logan than an A340 and to a lesser degree, an A330. If you have any questions, be sure to ask.

Its all about the ETOPS

Before moving on to another plane spotter post or something new, I thought I'd talk about ETOPS and how it explains the designs of the A340, A330, and B777.

So what is ETOPS?

Strictly speaking, ETOPS stands for "Extended-Range Twin-Engine Operational Performance Standards", but its more commonly said to stand for "Engines Turn Or Passangers Swim". ETOPS is the distance (measured by time) a twin engine aircraft (and airline) is allowed to be from an appropriate emergency diversion field should one engine fail. So for example, an ETOPS-90 rating means that the aircraft is allowed to fly a route that would take it no more than 90 minutes from an appropriate airport with one engine running. There are four levels of ETOPS:

• -75
• -90
• -120/138
• -180/207

Originally, prior to the 1980s (in the U.S. under the FAA) the only rating was just "ETOPS" which meant any operation over 60 minutes from a divert field for twin-engine aircraft. This 60 minute rule comes from the days of piston commercial airliners, whose engines were notoriously unreliable. Just as an interesting side note (for me), ETOPS was originally just EROPS, or Extended Range Operational Performance Standards, which applied to all aircraft. ETOPS wasn't created until much later in the 1980s, when the reliability of engines had reached the point where tri- and quad- engine aircraft did not need to follow EROPS.

How are ETOPS ratings decided?

Quite simply, ETOPS is all about engine failure probabilities (or inflight engine shut-down rate) in twin-engine airliners. The lesser the probably one engine will fail, the higher ETOPS rating it can be awarded, and in turn the remoter it's route can be. The failure rate is the magic statistic because the FAA asks three main questions: What is the likelihood one engine will fail inflight? Can the aircraft reach the desired emergency airport from the rating distance on one engine? What is the likelihood the second engine will fail during the diversion? The FAA evaluates each aircraft type AND airline and determines how far they can safely operate from an airport. The FAA take at least the following into account when giving a rating to an airline and its type:

• Engine Failure Rate/Inflight Shutdown Rate
• Crucial Systems (such as Fuel Metering System and Anti-Ice System) Failure Rates
• Crew Procedures and Training
• Maintenance Procedures and Records

Aircraft manufacturers ensure their desired planes will get the appropriate ratings by using engines that have been proved reliable through testing overseen by the FAA and by having redundant systems. Airlines, on the other hand, focus on crew training and enforcing strict maintenance procedures.

As a side note, when I read "What is the likelihood the second engine will fail during the diversion?" I thought that the chances of a double engine failure must be so small that its not worth considering. But then I realized that the disguised question is, how separate are the systems for each engine? If the first engine failure is due to a bird strike, logically the second engine should have no greater chance of a failure. But if the bird damages a common fuel pump for both engines that causes the fuel pressure in the second engine to drop, then that engine might have trouble staying "lit" for lack of a better work. Thus, the more interdependent the engines are on common systems, the greater the chance that there will be a double engine failure. Modern airliners usually have at least double system redundancy, with the most crucial systems such as the hydraulic and fuel pumps, electrical generators, and FADECs having triple or quadruple redundancy.

Why are ETOPS ratings so important?

Taken from a customer prospective, the first reason is quite obvious: ETOPS helps ensure safe operations on long-distance or remote routes. But the advent of high ETOPS ratings has greatly added to efficiency both in terms of money and time in the airline industry. Often the remoter routes (such as those that cross the oceans far from land and the Arctic circle routes) are shorter than there lower ETOPS rating counterparts. The more common example is the New York City to London route. Prior to ETOPS-90, all twin engine aircraft could not go straight to London or NYC, but instead had to arc close to Newfoundland, Greenland, and Iceland, in order to stay within 75 minutes (since they would be under ETOPS-75) of a diversion field. Instead, airlines would have to fly the more expensive and sometimes oversized (for the route demand) aircraft such as the L-1011 Tristar, DC-10/MD-11, or the classic B747. So since the creation of the ETOPS rating system by the FAA and the resulting efforts by most airlines to meet the standards for each optimized route, ticket prices and travel times have decreased.

Now that I've explained ETOPS ratings, I can move onto the existence of the A340, A330, and B777 and why the B777 was/is such a successful aircraft. But as I was putting my thoughts together to explain it all, I realized that it is more complicated than I thought since the obviousness of the answer to me is due to things I have probably incorrectly assumed are common knowledge. So I've decided to stop this post here so I can think about how I want to explain the A340, A330, and B777 question. If you would rather have a short summary answer and move on to something new, I can do that also. I realize that ETOPS is not exciting to read about, but I suppose its importance in the aviation universe is enough to justify this post... I hope. If you have any questions, just let me know.